The study reveals that US tariffs pose the greatest threat to Canada’s energy exports, with New Brunswick and Alberta bearing the brunt due to their significant reliance on crude oil and natural gas exports to the United States. Ontario, while less directly exposed, is still vulnerable due to its substantial trade volumes with its southern neighbor.
Energy exports are not the only sector at risk. The mining industry, a cornerstone of Canada’s economy and a critical player in the global energy transition, is also facing challenges. As a leading producer of responsibly sourced minerals and metals, Canada’s mining sector is essential for producing materials like lithium and cobalt, which are vital for electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies.
These findings come at a pivotal moment, as the world accelerates its shift toward decarbonization. The study highlights the urgent need for policy coherence and strategic planning to mitigate the impacts of US tariffs on Canada’s energy and mining sectors. By addressing these vulnerabilities, Canada can continue to play a pivotal role in the global energy transition while safeguarding its economic interests.

Alberta, another major hub for crude oil and natural gas exports to the US Midwest, is equally vulnerable. The province’s exports are primarily destined for Illinois, and its beef industry also stands to lose from increased trade barriers. While Ontario’s exposure is less direct compared to New Brunswick and Alberta, its southwestern region ranks third to sixth in terms of vulnerability due to its substantial trade volumes with the US.
The mining sector, a cornerstone of Canada’s economy, is also grappling with the challenges posed by US tariffs. As a global leader in responsibly sourced mineral and metal products, Canada plays a pivotal role in supplying materials essential for the global energy transition, such as lithium and cobalt for electric vehicle batteries and solar panels. These minerals are critical for decarbonization efforts, making the sector’s resilience paramount.
In response to these challenges, Canadian mining companies have embraced sustainability and inclusivity to remain competitive. The industry has made significant strides in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adopting environmentally friendly practices. These efforts not only align with global net-zero goals but also underscore Canada’s commitment to responsible resource extraction.
By addressing these vulnerabilities and leveraging its strengths in sustainable mining practices, Canada can navigate the challenges posed by US tariffs while continuing to play a critical role in the global energy transition. The study emphasizes the need for coordinated policy efforts to mitigate the impacts of these trade barriers and ensure the long-term resilience of Canada’s energy and mining sectors.

Conclusion
The study underscores the significant vulnerabilities of Ontario, New Brunswick, and Alberta to US tariffs, particularly in energy exports and the mining sector. These industries are crucial for Canada’s economy and its role in the global energy transition. Addressing these challenges through coordinated policy efforts is essential to mitigate the impacts of tariffs and ensure the long-term resilience of Canada’s energy and mining sectors.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Which Canadian provinces are most vulnerable to US tariffs?Ontario, New Brunswick, and Alberta are the most vulnerable due to their significant trade volumes with the US, particularly in energy exports and mining products.
- What sectors are most affected by US tariffs in Canada?The energy sector, particularly crude oil and natural gas exports, and the mining industry, which supplies critical minerals for the energy transition, are most affected.
- How do US tariffs impact Canada’s role in the global energy transition?US tariffs could hinder Canada’s ability to supply essential minerals like lithium and cobalt, which are vital for electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies, thus affecting its role in the global energy transition.
- How is the Canadian mining sector addressing these challenges?Canadian mining companies are embracing sustainability and environmentally friendly practices to remain competitive and align with global decarbonization goals.


